Market Commentaries
select * from bbg_commentary where 1=1 order by date desc
-
10 March 2022
USD CLO AAA
Almost 50 trades and $204m of liquidity today, US LL Index -23bp dod and spreads overall steady. At AAA our index is unchanged at 126dm, 2 x rare 2nd pays trade 140dm-162dm whilst 1st pays trade 129dm-154dm which is wide to our index given a number of credit impaired bonds (9/32 trades carry an ADR >1%) and compound effect on dm’s for higher coupon bonds (>+120bps).
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
6 x AA trades in a 188dm-200dm range and cash px dispersion very tight, our AA index is unchanged at 182dm. A high coupon +180bps bond GSM 2021-5A A2 covers 98.7 at 200dm / 7.5y WAL (EoRP 2026) with metrics clean but this is an inexperienced manager pushing the execution level wide of our index. 4 x BB trades 693dm-729dm, with our BB index 737dm, the profiles that trade are all EoRP 2026 with similar clean credit metrics and MVOC basis 106-107 and lower coupons +650bps hence trade inside our index level.
EUR AAA CLO
There are 3 x AAA trades today. Spreads range from +107 to +122 with an average of +115. This compares with the latest px talk on Harvest 28 of 107-110. The widest secondary trade is the long AAA (4.8yrs) with a low margin (86bps), RRE 2.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are 4 x BBB trades. We only have the big figure they traded at so it isn’t possible to precise about the traded spreads. However, approximately, the two low margin bonds have traded around +350a and the other two (closer to current par margins) at around +425a. Harvest 28 is talked at 415-425.
There are 3 x Bs which have traded from +1011 to +1051 with an average of +1036. Harvest 28 is talked 1025-1050.
EUR/GBP ABS/RMBS
BUMP 2019-DE1 B (German autos, orig AA) traded at 74dm. In AAA UK BTL TPMF 2019-A13A A1 traded at 89dm and CANBY 1 A2 at 107dm, both to the step up date.
-
9 March 2022
USD CLO AAA
Significant liquidity today with 75 trades and $433m of bonds changing hands, US LL Index -3bp dod, whilst BBB spreads saw the most pronounced softening effects. Around half of today’s liquidity is AAA with BSL and MM CLOs trading, BSL trading range is 125dm-144dm with our AAA index remaining at 126dm, whilst 2 x MM CLOs trade in a 177dm-197dm range. For BSLs the cash px basis is almost 1pt given the array of bond/deal profiles, with best execution favoured to the shorter wal bonds / shorter remaining reinvestment / post reinvestment.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
20 x AA bonds trade in a 178dm-220dm range, our AA index is 182dm with today’s range distorted by higher coupon bonds and credit impacted fundamentals whilst the flight to quality remains in shorter wal bonds / long reinvestment with strong cushions given the market volatility, for instance ARES 2017-43A BR covers 99.5 at 178dm / 7.5y WAL (EoRP 2026) – 0.8 ADR, 5.5 Jnr OC Cushion and 128.5 MVOC. At single-A there are 3 trades in a 233dm-254dm range, our single-A index is 235dm, BSP 2018-16A CR trades wide to this from a dm perspective, CVR 97.5 at 254dm / 5.2y WAL (EoRP 2022) with only the Sub80 bucket as a weak metric 2.4% whilst the coupon +200bps is not likely to reset in the near future with NC this June. At BBB there are 24 trades in a 300dm-425dm range with a 3.6pt cash px dispersion given the spread of bond profiles. Our BBB index is 351dm. Best execution is BCC 2020-1A D CVR 99.98 at 425dm / 7.2y WAL (EoRP 2025) – high coupon +425bps with clean credit and MV metrics and a solid manager record. At the other end of the scale is NEUB 2017-16SA DR CVR 96.35 at 345dm / 8.2y WAL (EoRP 2026) – lower coupon +290bps, lower MVOC 109.1, high ADR 1.6. 5 x BB trades 673dm – 815dm with a 3pt cash px dispersion, our BB index is 733dm which is in the middle of this range, BATLN 2017-11A ER trades at a low cash px (CVR 94.4) at 778dm / 9y WAL (EoRP 2026) – ADR elevated 0.9, Sub80 high 2.7 and other metrics broadly in line including a decent manager record.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are a handful of EUR trades today. The single A, Euro-Galaxy 5, traded at +288 over floored Libor.
The 3 x BBB trades have traded at an average of +369 over floored Libor. We can see the impact of lower loan pricing feeding through as the BBB MVOC has fallen by around 2pts in the last month for all 3 bonds. These levels do indicate a firmer tone than existed when CVC Cordatus 23 priced.
The two BBs have very different margins and so traded at very different spreads ie +636 and +748. It is hard to draw any conclusions about where the secondary market for BBs is from these two data points.
The single B, Dryden 59 2017, traded at 89.55 / +819, but it has a low margin and therefore isn’t telling us much about where a par bond would trade.
-
8 March 2022
USD CLO AAA
A fair level of liquidity today with $167m of trades across IG and SubIG, US LL Index softens for the second day running almost 50bp (-40bp dod) whilst mezz spreads widen a touch (A-BB). At AAA our index remains at 126dm with trading dispersion 114dm-178dm whilst there are two well factored bonds that trade > 200dm given the very short wal (<0.4y) with very little dispersion amongst reinvesting bonds with cash px 99.1-99.5.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At AA there are 4 trades in a 179dm-191dm range, with our AA index 180dm, OCP 2020-18A BR has best execution at CVR 98.8 at 191dm / 5.7y WAL given the high coupon +170bps (MV and credit metrics clean). At single-A there is significant basis between trades given the variety of profiles (long reinvestment v short reinvestment and high coupon v low coupon), trading range is 214dm-442dm with a 3.6pt cash px dispersion given the differing profiles, our single-A index is 233dm with best execution CFIP 2013-1A CR CVR 99.66 at 280dm / 3.7y WAL given post-reinvestment (EoRP 2021) and clean credit metrics and strong MVOC 122.5. At BBB there is also significant basis similar to scenarios for single-A (cash px dispersion 5pts and dm range 340dm-464dm), our BBB index is 336dm with MVOCs pushing bonds wider across reinvesting bonds with weaker manager profiles impacting bonds at this level in the stack. 1 x BB trade CGMS 2015-1A ER CVR 94.27 at 837dm / 5.2y WAL with our BB index 741dm, this bond has a short wal (EoRP July 2022) but ADR is high 1.23, Sub80 bucket elevated 2.4, MVOC at the lower end 105.8 and Jnr OC cushion at low/mid end 2.9% with a coupon +694bps.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
At last we have a resumption of liquidity in the EUR CLO market. There are 24 trades from AA to BB. The only AA trades, Carlyle 2017-3, traded at +193 over floored Libor. Even though this is considerably inside recent new issue levels because this bond has a low margin it is actually in line with the new issue market.
There are 6 x single A trades with an average spread of +301. The last Primary deals were at +315.
There are 3 x BBB trades. All 3 deals are in amortisation but against that one of them is Man GLG 3 which always trades wide. So with those provisos, the average traded spread is +396 versus primary at +415.
There are 14 x BB trades. These have traded at an average spread of +765 versus new issues at +750 and +775.
EUR/GBP ABS/RMBS
A number of EUR denominated mortgage bonds which are about to reach their step up date have traded at very small premiums. DILSK 4 B (Irish RMBS) traded at VH99h which is approx. 127dm to step up and DPF 2021-1 B (Dutch RMBS) traded at L99h / 135dm to step up.
In UK BTL CSF 2021-1 A (rated AAA) traded at 109dm. MORTI 2021-1 B (AA) at 158dm and MORTI 2021-1 C (orig A) at 203dm. TWIN 2021-1 B (rated AA) traded at 155dm.
-
7 March 2022
USD CLO AAA
Light flows at the senior end of the stack today, with 6 x AAA trades and US LL Index -42bps versus Friday close. Little basis between the trades which are in a 128dm-138dm range, with emphasis in the first instance on NAVs (MVOC) and manager tiering with bonds from Columbia Management and Alcentra meeting weaker execution given their respective manager profiles, see PriceABS for trade history log.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are 3 x AA trades today. They have traded at an average spread of +227 over floored libor. This is right in the context of the recent pricing of Otranto Park and CVC Cordatus 23.
-
4 March 2022
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
Just 4 x AA trades today. Only two of them are floaters. These two are wider than the previous day’s trading. On Thu the average AA spread was +183 (over floored Libor). Today the average is +199 (Toro 4 at +193 and Segovia Euro 5 2018 at +205). This compares with new issue pricing today of +215 for Otranto Park and +230 for CVC Cordatus 23 at the AA level. Given that the secondary pieces are shorter and in the case of Toro 4 the deal is amortising this gives confidence that the new issue spread is clearing one for the AA tranche. The same cannot be said at the AAA level where these deals are priced at +96 and +100 respectively. This is around 15bps to 20bps tighter than where secondary AAAs are trading – but then there are a lot of AAA buyers who only buy in primary.
-
3 March 2022
USD CLO AAA
A more buoyant day with $212m of liquidity across 44 trades across the capital structure, BB spreads softening most in relative terms, US LL Index +4bp dod. 16 x AAAs trade at a discount in a 121dm-139dm range with our AAA index in the middle of this range 126dm.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At AA there are seven trades in a 158dm-191dm range with our AA index 179dm. COOK 2018-1A B trades at the lowest cash price 98.8 at 168dm / 4.7y WAL given the low coupon +140bps and the bond still in reinvestment for another year whilst the Jnr OC cushion is at the lower end 3.4%. At single-A the trading range is 212dm-310dm across 10 trades with two very short wal bonds which are 4y post reinvestment end and carry coupons > +230bps. At BBB there are 6 trades in a 288dm-457dm range with our BBB index 332dm, best execution remains in post reinvestment bonds just like for single-A with the outperformer NWSTR 2015-1RA DR CVR 99.89 at 400dm / 1.1y WAL (EoRP 2019, high coupon +390bps and MVOC 294). At the other end of the scale is VIBR 2018-8A C CVR 93.37 at 448dm / 4.7y WAL (EoRP 2023, coupon +285bps) – MVOC is low 108.7, ADR is high 1.35, Sub80 bucket is high 3.6 and Jnr OC cushion low at 1.3. At BB the trading range is 706dm-820dm with our BB index 725dm, CANYC 2020-3X E with a high coupon +725bps covers 99.55 at 732dm / 8.7y WAL close to our index level – EoRP 2026 with very clean credit and MV metrics despite the modest manager record.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
We saw a resumption of some liquidity in the EUR CLO market today, with some mezz bonds trading. 3 x AAs traded with spreads over floored Libor from +174 to +195 with an average of +183. This compares well with px talk on CVC Cordatus 23 which had the AA tranche talked at 170-175 on 22 Feb and is now at H100s.
There are 7 x single A trades. The spread over floored Libor ranges from +270 to +298 with an average of +287. This compares with CVC Cordatus 23 talk which was at 245-255 at the beginning of marketing and is now at MH200s.
EUR/GBP ABS/RMBS
A number of RMBS have traded today. Chester AA & A (UK Prime) traded at 147dm and 184dm respectively which is only slightly wider than the pricing of Barley Hill 2 which took place prior to the outbreak of war in Ukraine. In UK BTL Hops Hill 1 AA (originated by Keystone) traded at 100.25 / 149dm and London Wall Mortgage Capital 2021-FL1 AA (originated by Fleet Mortgages) at 145dm. In UK non-conforming a short orig single A that is a AA now, Warwick Finance 3, originated by Paratus and Platform traded at 154dm. Finally the senior tranches of Irish BTL, Primrose 2021-1 & Shamrock 2021-1 traded around 90dm.
-
2 March 2022
USD CLO AAA
More than $120m of liquidity today across 36 x IG trades with spreads largely flat on the day, US LL Index also flat dod. AAA trade 112dm-134dm with a short dated trade CIFC 2013-2A A1L2 covers MH99h at 112dm / 2.6y WAL (EoRP 2022), whilst our AAA index in the middle of this range 125dm, so some early signs of stabilisation at least today.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At the AA level there are 9 trades in a 164dm-196dm range, with our AA index again in the middle of this range 181dm, with tiering driven keenly by wal and MVOC given metrics are relatively clean on the bonds on lists today. WINDR 2021-1X B1 experiences weak execution in terms of cash px CVR 97.75 at 181dm / 7.2y WAL given the low coupon +145bps but with clean metrics this trade is in line with our index. At single-A there are 16 trades in a 198dm-295dm range with our single-A index 220dm. There are more variables in terms of tiering with low coupon bonds (<200bps) notoriously weakest in terms of cash px with shorter wal bonds with low coupons (ie. post reinvestment) trading closer to par. For reinvesting bonds with clean metrics and coupons > 200bps the trading range is 215dm-248dm which is wrapped around our index level. At BBB there are 5 trades which are all post reinvestment and in a 328dm-351dm range with our BBB index 332dm.
-
1 March 2022
USD CLO AAA
22 trades today with >$77m of liquidity across the stack, US LL Index +2bp dod with a number of short dated bonds offered. AAA continue to trade at a discount and dm's softened a touch on reinvesting bonds as our AAA BSL index moves to 126dm. There is one rare reinvesting MM CLO GOCAP 2014-21X AR covers at 99.35 at 173dm / 2.6y WAL (EoRP 2023), this is the first AAA MM CLO trade of the year with dm's around year end in the L160s to put into context the softening since.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At the AA level there are four trades in a 184dm-196dm range, with our AA index at the tight end of this 181dm, so a continued softening feel given all the trades are reinvesting and at the short end of that (EoRP within 2y). MVOC drives tiering with ALLEG 2017-2X B from AXA IM CVR at the wide end 98.31 at 196dm / 4y WAL (MVOC 126.8 vs benchmark 128-130) with other metrics largely in line. At BBB there are 4 trades in a 246dm-502dm range with all but one bond post reinvestment . static CLO from day one, eg. PSTAT 2020-1A C CVR 100.13 at 246dm / 3.3y WAL. The one reinvesting bond is AWPT 2017-8A D which covers at 95.1 at 396dm / 5.2y WAL - MVOC is very low 109.9, Sub80 bucket is high at 3% and the bond carries a low coupon +287bps whilst the manager ArrowMark's record is back from benchmark levels. At the BB level there are a number of trades at the short end in a 569dm-700dm range with our BB index 713dm, the one reinvesting bond to trade is BLUEM 2018-22A E CVR 91.37 at 685dm / 6.2y WAL (EoRP 2023) which has average metrics across the board whilst the manager (Assured) record is a touch back from benchmark levels with a low coupon +505bps driving the dm level inside our index.
-
28 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
With month end today and the inherent volatility in markets there is no surprise that there is little liquidity, one trade today at AAA. US LL Index +9bp dod but -8bp on Fri 18th Feb close. OCP 2020-8RA A1 from Onex which is a benchmark manager covers at 99.61 at 134dm / 3.5y WAL (EoRP 2024 / +122 coupon) which is a relatively clean bond with good credit metrics (ADR 0.4 / Sub80 bucket 1.5 / WARF 2786), strong MVOC 156.5 and strong Jnr OC cushion 4.3. Our AAA index shifts wider to 125dm.
EUR AAA CLO
Secondary market is still paused. Just 2 x AAA trades today. They have taken place at an average spread over floored Libor of 110bps. Not as wide as the 120bps that many believe the AAA market is really at. But of course this is just two trades.
-
24 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
20 trades today, virtually all AAA, US LL Index -51bp dod with the softer tone given the ripple effect of the Russian invasion of Ukraine on world markets into credit. AAA bonds trade in a wide dispersion 123dm-213dm with the tail 149dm-213dm (123dm-144dm for reinvesting bonds) post-reinvestment / original static CLO bonds and perhaps weaker given their inability to reinvest / trade the underlying credits into cheaper bonds or out of credit impaired sectors/names. Our AAA index widens to 116dm.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
1 x BB trade today, PSTAT 2019-1A D which is a static CLO (2019 vintage) and has a +580bps coupon but short wal with CVR at par ceiling 578dm / 2.7y WAL – metrics are strong MVOC 115.3, ADR low 0.3, Sub80 low 1.7 and Jnr OC cushion high 13.7. At this level the credit and MV metrics are more relevant and despite the inability to trade the underlying the execution level is good.
EUR AAA CLO
Today has been an important day’s trading on EUR CLO bwics. Even though there have only been a handful of trades they have all taken place at decisively wider levels indicating there are a few holders willing to sell at these levels and also how far back the best bid is. The 2 x AAA trades are both MH98h which is a spread of around 120bps over floored Libor. It’s only 2 trades but these levels are around another 8bps wider on the day.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are 3 x BB trades. These are up to 3-4pts lower than our previous calibration and 60-70bps wider. The range of spreads over floored Libor is from 643bps to 782bps with an average of 734bps.
The sole single B trade, Aurium 3, took place at 85 / 1033bps over floored Libor.
EUR/GBP ABS/RMBS
In autos we have CIART 2020-1 A (Irish AAA) at 67dm and RNBAI 1 A (Italian) at 50dm. In prime mortgages we have DILSK 5 A (Irish AAA) at 61dm to step up and FSQ 2019-2 A & FSQ 2019-3 A (UK) at 85dm to step up. DOMI 2021-1 A (Dutch BTL AAA) traded at 65dm to step up.
-
23 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
32 trades today with $96m of liquidity, US LL Index is flat day on day whilst spreads showed a slightly weaker tone at mid-mezz levels. 1 x AAA trade today NEUB 2015-20A ARR which covers at 99.5 at 125dm / 6.1y WAL (EoRP 2026) and with a coupon +116 it does not execute at par ceiling given the softer tone.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At single-A there are 9 trades in a 214dm-312dm range, our single-A index shifts wider to 213dm given execution levels are softer from clean bonds at this rating level for bonds within reinvestment phase. At the weaker end of execution is MPCF 2021-1A B CVR 97.5 at 312dm / 8.3y WAL (EoRP 2026) but despite clean metrics the longer wal and the inexperience of the manager pull this bond wider in terms of cash px. At BBB there is good liquidity with 15 trades in a 266dm–479dm range, our BBB index is 325dm which is relatively unchanged given the days trades are dominated by bonds post reinvestment, bonds within reinvestment with coupons in VH200s/300area trend towards L300s dm range with clean metrics (MVOC > 112). At BB there are 6 trades in a 634dm-768dm range, our BB index is 694dm so there is a cluster around this, at the weaker end of execution is APID 2013-12A ER CVR 89.65 at 768dm / 6y WAL (EoRP 2023), there is a low coupon +540 and cuspy MVOC 103.7 and Jnr OC cushion 2% does account for the execution level.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are only a few mezz trades today but they all show the continuing weaker tone of the market. The two BBBs have traded at very different spreads because of their different margins (326dm and 403dm) but this is another 5 -10 bps wider on the day.
The two BBs have traded at 598dm and 699dm which is at least 10bps softer. The tighter of the two trades is Newhaven 2, again because of its low margin, but this BB has weak credit quality with a low MVOC of 107.12%.
-
22 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
With the holiday weekend behind us now we start to see a trickle of liquidity, 12 trades today across the stack, $65m of trading whilst US LL Index -7bp dod. AAA trades continue to trade below par with bonds with coupons < 100bps and post reinvestment included in this cohort. We maintain our AAA index at 112dm.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At single-A there are 3 trades in a 184dm-206dm range, these bonds are post reinvestment and trend very close to par trading at a slight discount. Our single-A index is 208dm which is more reflective of bonds within reinvestment and hence wider than the trades seen today, BSMC 2013-1A CR has a coupon of +180bps / EoRP 2020 and covers at 99.90 at 184dm / 2.7y WAL – ADR is high 2%, Sub80 2.7% but cushions are strong Jnr OC cushion 5.3% with MVOC 155.6 noting that the bond has been upgraded to Aa3. At BBB there is one trade which is post reinvestment TRMPK 2015-1A DRR with a coupon +265bps and cover price 99.93 at 267dm / 3.5y WAL – metrics are strong all round hence the execution price near par despite the ‘lower coupon’ given the short wal. Our BBB index is 326dm. 3 x BB trades in a 781dm-901dm range, these bonds have weaker credit (ADR 1.1%-2%, Sub80 1.7-5.4)and MV metrics (MVOC 104-106) with coupon structures 680dm-720dm from weaker managers (See PriceABS trade history). At the wide end is VENTR 2016-25A E which is post reinvestment (EoRP 2021), coupon +720bps, ADR 1.5, Sub80 very high 5.4 and Jnr OC cushion 1.8 with a low MVOC 104.3 and CVR 93.89 at 901dm / 4.2y WAL. Our BB index is 694dm which does highlight the impact weaker credits have at this point.
EUR AAA CLO
Just a few trades to look at today. The three AAAs have all traded around 116dm, which is unchanged on recent levels. Cairn 7 is amortising and traded at M99h which seemed quite cheap to us given it has only 1.5yrs WAL left to mat.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
Both AAs have traded LM97h which is around 260dm for both of them. These are the first single As we have seen trade on a bwic for a while and while a catch up in the widening that took place last week is definitely part of the picture it is hard to tell if there has been recent further widening.
The 2 x BBBs have traded around 380dm which we definitely think is another 10-15bps of further widening in the last day or two.
-
21 February 2022
EUR/GBP ABS/RMBS
Two mezzanine ABEST 15 tranches have traded. This is an Italian auto deal in which the Class A has heavily factored down. Class D, originally BBB but now AA/A, traded at 100.81 which is 138dm to mat. Class E, orig BB but also now AA/A, traded at 101.15 / 219dm to mat. If a clean up call were to be exercised, at these high premiums the DMs would be below zero. AAA French auto leases, COMP 2021-FR1 A, traded at 39dm. AAA German auto leases, COMP 2021-GE2 A, traded at 28dm.
-
17 February 2022
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
16 trades today, all mezz with a softer feel at AA, A and BB, US LL index -19bp dod. 3 x AA trades in a 165dm-191dm range, our AA index widens to 165dm as we observe the impact that softer loan prices are having on NAVs with tiering driven by MVOC, Blackrock’s MAGNE 2016-18A BR the pick of the trades at 99.58 at our index level 165dm / 3.1y WAL but this is post reinvestment and strong MVOC 130.3. At single-A there is $39m of liquidity with 10 trades in a 210dm-301am range and a 1.5pt cash px dispersion, our single-A index is 209dm. The trading range is distorted by a number of high coupon bonds as opposed to for credit reasons, the impact of softer loan prices impacts trades at this level too. 2 x BBB trades, RAD 2021-15A D covers at 99.16 at 319dm / 7y WAL which is close to our BBB index 326dm, whilst APID 2019-32A D covers nearer to par at 99.5 at 359dm / 7y WAL given a higher coupon +350bps. 1 x BB trade WELF 2019-1X D CVR 94h at 797dm / 7.3y WAL (Wellfleet) which has a coupon +690bps (close to our BB index 694dm) but also a mediocre MVOC 106.5 and manager record close to benchmark.
EUR AAA CLO
There are 5 x AAA trades today. The market looks softer again with most trades taking place 2-3 bps wider than our model predicted. Barings 2014-2 and Avoca 11 are in amortisation. The average traded spread is 107dm.
-
16 February 2022
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
There is only one trade today at the BBB level. US LL Index -7bp dod. Blackstone's GILBT 2017-1A D covers 99.49 at 307dm / 5y WAL (EoRP 2022), which is close to our generic BBB index 327dm, credit metrics are clean and Jnr OC cushion is strong 4.4 whilst MVOC is healthy 113.
EUR AAA CLO
There are 2 x AAA trades today. For the first time in several days there are signs of firmness in AAA levels. Barings Euro 2019-1 traded well at 99.96 / 118dm. Anchorage 2021-4 traded at 105dm.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
The 4 x BBB trades have traded around 370dm. These are not much changed from recent levels.
Adagio 8 equity covered at 53.77. Its NAV is 47.90. The traded level is around 16.5% yield or alternatively is half way between a 13% cashflow value and the NAV. It’s a clean looking portfolio with a zero CCC bucket.
-
15 February 2022
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
Around $100m of liquidity today as US LL Index bounces back +9bp dod, with trades all in the mezz category. AA trades are all longer wal (EoRP 2026), with all trades at a discount to par and dm range 172dm-185dm for clean credits, high coupons from good managers. A softer feel given the dm range and associated longer wal, we have seen spotty trading in this profile in recent weeks at the tighter end of today’s dm range. Our AA index shifts to 163dm. At single-A trading range is 196dm-223dm with our index in the middle of this range 209dm, GRNPK 2018-1A C sees weakest execution at 98.83 at 197dm / 4.7y WAL (EoRP 2023, +170bps coupon) driven acutely by the low coupon +170bps. At the BBB level the trading range is 333dm-354dm with our BBB index 328dm, so a softer feel given the profiles of bonds are clean (judging by strong Jnr OC cushions and low ADRs) and not all long wal (all bonds trade at a discount).
EUR AAA CLO
There are 4 x AAA trades today. AAAs are still showing softness. The average traded spread is 100dm and that is inspite of Dryden 39 2015 and Contego 4 being in amortisation.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There is just one single A trade. Armada Euro 3 traded at 99.58 / 250dm.
-
14 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
$56m of liquidity across 12 trades today – AAA and BB. US LL Index -29bps on the day, the loan market seeing signs of correcting and aligning with HY. Given this the continued theme of AAAs trading at a small discount as opposed to par ceilings continues, 7 trades at a discount today and MVOC is the key driver to tiering as expected. We maintain our AAA index at 112dm which was Friday’s close.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At the BB level there are some weaker bonds out on lists with all bonds with MVOC <105.5, ADRs elevated close to 1% for the main part and Jnr OC cushions < 3% for short wal bonds (EoRP 2022). Execution levels are between cash price 92h and 97h with dm range 738dm-874dm so far higher than our BB index 691dm given the reasons mentioned and softer loan market feel.
EUR AAA CLO
Just 4 x AAA trades today. They are all in the MH99h area which is around 120dm. These price ranges are not precise enough to determine whether there has been further softening in AAA spreads.
-
11 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
23 trades to round out the week today with >$140m of liquidity, US LL Index -10bps change on the week. A softer feel at the top of the stack with our AAA index finishing the week 112dm, whilst $113m of trades execute at a discount to par despite margin structures >+100bps and benchmark managers like CIFC and CVC.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
At single-A the trading range is 193dm-249dm with our single-A index 209dm, 2 trades hit their par ceilings with both trades post reinvestment bonds with coupons >+215bps. At BBB there are $13m of trades in a 305dm-397dm range with our BBB index finishing the week 328dm, best execution is AWPT 2020-11X D1 at 99.27 at 397dm / 7.3y WAL – high coupon +385bps, long wal (EoRP 2025) and credit metrics clean with a strong Jnr OC cushion 5.1.
EUR AAA CLO
A number of senior bonds traded today. There are 9 x AAA trades. AAA Spreads look softer again on the day to us, after a few days of consolidation. A lot of the bonds are amortising – these traded at an average spread of 107dm. The non-amortising bonds traded at 112dm.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are 7 x AA trades. We only have price ranges that they traded in so it is hard to be precise but it does again look like the AA sector is softer by a few basis points. Using the middle of the price ranges the traded spreads are quite consistent at around 185dm.
-
10 February 2022
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
14 trades with $45m of liquidity today, US LL Index -3bps whilst BBB spreads continue to remain firm. All 8 x debt trades are BBB rated, in a 303dm-411dm range. 2 trades that hit their par ceilings are driven keenly by their margin structure and wal, firstly a short dated ALLEG 2016-1A DR which is post reinvestment and carries a +380bps coupon covers 100.18 at 374dm / 4y WAL whilst BRDGS 2020-1A C covers 100.17 at 411dm / 8.1y WAL (EoRP 2026) with a high coupon +414bps (manager Franklin Sq). In contrast a high coupon bond MP17 2020-1A D (+375bps) covers at 99.00 at 391dm / 7.3y WAL (EoRP 2025) but here the manager record is weaker to peers and appears to drive execution given credit/MV metrics are clean. Our BBB index tightens to 332dm.
EUR AAA CLO
Another busy day for EUR CLOs. Most of the activity is in BBBs but dealing with the AAA first – Sound Point 7 traded back at tighter levels (109dm) after the recent days softening. However there was only one AAA trade to look at.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are 3 x AA trades – all of them fixed rate. These bonds most likely trade on a yield basis but still, for what it’s worth, expressed as a spread over Libor they traded at around +250.
The only single A, Phoenix Park, traded at 100h which makes it hard to say whether this is a retracement of recent widening or not.
There are 15 x BBB trades. These levels do not look, to us, to show any bounce back. They look like they are steady at the recent wider levels. Longer dated maturities are still showing weakness and bonds just around their NC date are also soft. Two of the bonds are from deals in amortisation – Richmond Park and Jubilee 2014-11. The range of traded spreads is from 300dm to 380dm with an average of 345dm.
-
9 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
46 trades today with almost $280m of liquidity, US LL Index is flat dod whilst liability spreads broadly flat with some mild tightening in BBB. At AAA there are 8 trades with one hitting par ceiling CBAM 2018-6A A1R has a high coupon +127bps and covers at 126dm / 2.9y WAL (EoRP 2023) with CBAM’s manager record at benchmark levels and metrics on this bond reasonable. In terms of the other trades that trade at a small discount, bond coupons are < +122bps from some benchmark managers with good bond performance and similar EoRP profiles to the CBAM bond so there is some shift to a higher coupon threshold at the AAA level. Our AAA index is 111dm.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
11 x AA trades in a wide dispersion 152dm-216dm with no trades at par ceilings with those bonds with a margin <+150bps seeing weakest execution, our AA index is 158dm. The wide end of the dm range is not due to credit but rather higher coupon bonds (+200-205 bps) with covers near par. 15 x single-A trades and just under $100m of notes changing hands, dm range 182dm-259dm whilst our single-A index shifts tighter to 206dm, 3 trades that hit their par ceilings have bond coupons > +200bps, strong MVOC 120+, low ADR and strong Jnr OC cushions 4.5+. 11 x BBB trades in a 294dm-350dm range with our BBB index shifting slightly tighter to 335dm. 5 bonds hit their par ceilings, bond coupons >+295bps and strong credit / MV metrics whilst those trades at the heaviest discounts have similar profiles in terms of term and margin but manager tiering is more pronounced, eg. TCW 2020-1A DRR covers at 99.28 at 350dm / 8.3y WAL (+340bps coupon, low ADR 0.4, low Sub80 0.2 and strong Jnr OC cushion 5.3) but the manager is inexperienced with a weaker record to peers. Just one BB trade BATLN 2017-11A ER (EoRP 2026, margin +685bps) covers at a discount 98.77 at 704dm / 9.1y WAL – Sub80 balance is high at 3.5 whilst other metrics are broadly in line, this compares with our BB index 691dm.
EUR AAA CLO
Another busy day of BWICs. AAAs are steady today, after yesterday’s widening. The range of DMs is from 105 to 119dm with the exception of Ares Euro 14 which traded at 133dm because of its high AAA margin of 112bps. Avoca 11 and Harvest 12 are amortising and have short WALs of 1.6yrs.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are 5 x BBB trades. Our calibrations are still catching up with the widening that has taken place over the last few days meanwhile it appears BBBs are softer again on the day. Man GLG Euro 5 is the widest trade at 407dm. The rest are in the 350 to 380dm range.
-
8 February 2022
USD CLO AAA
44 trades today with $275m of liquidity across the stack, US LL Index -1bp dod. The bulk of the supply is from AAA trades with $182m of trades with manager choice once again influencing execution levels with around 14 trades trading at a discount to par with reasonable performance. Our AAA index shifts slightly tighter to 110dm.
USD CLO Mezz/Equity
4 x AA trades in a 155dm-174dm range with our AA index at the tight end of this 158dm, MVOC and Jnr OC cushions influencing tiering here all things considered. 2 x single-A trades in a 195dm-196dm range with our A index flat dod at 207dm, coupons are lower on the two trades (+170-175bps) and cover prices are at a discount to par. 2 x BBB trades 380dm-388dm (our BBB index 340dm), high coupon bonds +360-395bps with CFIP 2013-1A DR (high coupon +395bps, manager CFI partners) covers at par ceiling at 388dm / 4y WAL with MV and credit metrics overall clean. 8 x BB trades in a 675dm-824dm range, with our BB index 690dm there is some dispersion in execution levels with no trades at par ceilings. Weakest execution is OFSBS 2017-1A E CVR 90.25 at 808dm / 4.75y WAL – low MVOC 103.7, elevated Sub80 bucket 2.8, cuspy Jnr OC cushion 1.6 whilst the bond is post reinvestment and managed by OFS which is an inexperienced manager.
EUR AAA CLO
A very busy day for EUR CLOs today. There are 8 x AAA trades. Even though AAAs have been issued at +92 some deals are being marketed wider eg the reset of Oak Hill 3 at 94-96 and this is reflected in secondary levels today. AAAs are wider by up to 4bps, although at some of these levels the bonds DNT’d.
EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO
There are 2 x AA trades at around 160dm and this is softer too. We see AAs 5-10bps wider.
There are 7 x BBB trades. BBBs are about 10bps wider, especially at the long end. The 7yr WAL part of the curve has steepened relative to the 6yr.
It’s a similar story in BBs where we see spreads around 20bps wider. The exception to that is the Black Diamond 2015-1 BB trade at 541dm, but the reason for this tight level is because the deal has substantially delevered. Leaving the Black Diamond trade aside the others have traded at an average spread of 670dm.