Market Commentaries



Eur/GBP

USD  

 

Feedback on Commentaries and Analysis is welcome
Sheil Aggarwal


select * from bbg_commentary where 1=1 order by date desc
  • 25 November 2020

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The day before Thanksgiving there are only EUR CLO trades, 23 of them. The 7 x AAs have traded between 190dm and 220dm. These are unchanged AA spreads.

    The 7 x A bonds have traded between 260dm and 350dm. The tightest trade is Arbour 5 by OakTree Capital. OakTree shelves always trade tight relative to their peers. AT the wide end we have GLG Euro 5 at 338dm (deal is performing well) and Halcyon 2017-1 (Bardin Hill) at 351dm (deal is not performing so well – MVOC is low at 119.34% and Jnr OC cushion is low at 0.65%). Overall single As have tightened by 10bps.

    There are 2 x BBB. Voya Euro 1 traded at 356dm. Harvest 16 traded at 416dm. The Harvest 16 bond does have 2pts lower of MVOC and 2pts lower of Jnr OC cushion. Overall it looks like BBB spreads have tightened by 40bps. Yesterday it was reported by Bloomberg that 2 New Issues priced. CVC Cordatus 19 priced at recent tights but Toro 7 levels were more like those prior to the recent vaccine driven rally. For example at the BBB level CVC Cordatus 19 priced at 380bps over floored Euribor which was 45bps tighter than Bain’s deal a week earlier but then this was swiftly followed by Toro 7 at 450bps.

    There are 7 x BBs which traded between 620dm and 800dm. This spread variation is mostly margin driven rather than credit driven. Traded prices are between around 94.00 and 98.00 irrespective of the margin on the bond, which vary from 470bps to 681bps.


  • 24 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    29 covers today – 9 x AAA, 10 x A, 2 x BBB and 8 x BB, US LLI is up 46bps since Friday close and this is reflected in a continued firm tone.  AAA are all 1st pay and trade 101dm-131dm which is flat to recent tights, the bonds are all clean fundamentally with strong MV coverage.  At the tight end are notoriously short dated WAL benchmark bonds (circa 2y) from CVC APID 2015-21A A1R 101dm and CSAM MDPK 2015-19A A1R2 108dm.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Single-As trade 223dm-311dm with recent context 200dm-260dm, whilst bonds at the wide end (3-handle) trade at levels seen in the first half of this month pre rally.  However digging deeper into the bonds there are credit factors to account for with two outlier bonds that prop up the wide end 310dm-311dm.  MJX’s VENTR 2017-26A C 310dm / 4.98y WAL and Carlson’s CATLK 2013-1A BR 311dm / 5.7y WAL both have much weaker MV coverage (113 vs 115+ for peers), carry high ADRs 1.2-1.95, negative IDT cushions and hence cuspy Jnr OC whilst the MJX bond has a WAS greater than 4% 4.06 despite a 2876 WARF.  BBB trade in a narrow dispersion 407dm-412dm which is in the middle of a fairly wide spread of trading context seen this month in similar cohort 340dm-500dm, both bonds share similar strong fundamental profiles with the only exception being the Neuberger bond NEUB 2019-34A D that carries a 1.64 ADR but reinforced by a strong MVOC 111.5, low Sub80 bucket 1.5, low WARF 2824, low CCC 5.9 and strong cushions with a 97.95 WA collateral px.  BB trade 699dm-850dm with trading horizon for similar cohort 600dm-1000dm.  At the wide end is an ‘outlier’ which is Sculptor’s OZLM 2018-20A D 850dm / 7y WAL – low MVOC v peer group 102.6, high CCC 11.9, high ADR 1.54, cuspy IDT cushion 0.22 and a relatively low WA collateral px 95.12 with the manager’s record weak to peers.

    EUR AAA CLO

    A very heavy day’s trading with 46 EUR trades in total. 5 of them are AAA. Castle Park traded at 96dm but it is a hugely delevered deal. The other 4 traded between 140dm and 153dm. These are unchanged AAA levels.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 17 x AA trades, many of them fixed rate. The floaters have traded in a range from 197dm to 230dm. Many of the fixed rate have traded to a call date however if you take the traded price and calculate the DM to Mat the range is from 250dm to 322dm so it is evident that fixed rate AA bonds trade with at least 40bps of spread premium.

    There are 3 x BBB trades. The GBP denominated Dryden 63 2018 traded at 519dm. Bain 2018-2 traded at 420dm and Bardin Hill 2019-1 at 485dm, which are in line with their manager premiums. Overall this is around a 30bps widening in the BBB spread curve.

    There are 18 x BB trades. The trading range is from 630dm to 780dm. Surprisingly the widest trade is Bain 2019-1. The deal is performing well and Bain is not a manager that normally trades wide. Jubilee 2015-XV traded tight, at 650dm, but this deal is paying down.

    The 3 x B trades traded around 875dm. We haven’t seen any movement in the BB or B curves.


  • 23 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Nineteen covers today – 3 x AAA, 3 x AA, 4 x BBB and 9 x BB.  AAA trade 153dm-164dm, these are all rare 2nd pays so trade 20-30dm wide to the 1st pay curve.  At the wide end is CSAM’s MDPK 2016-20X A2R 164dm / 5y WAL – this has a higher Sub80 bucket than the other trades at 7%, higher CCC 16.7, higher WARF 3149 and resultant higher WAS 3.93 and lower WA collateral px 94.97.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AA trade in a very wide dispersion 202dm-335dm, with the tight end made up on 2023/2024 RP profiles that trade 202dm-215dm in line with recent context, however the outlier is Caryle’s CGMS 2017-2A A2A 335dm / 5.7y WAL – the MVOC is very low 122.5, ADR is high 1.44, WARF is elevated 3241, IDT cushion is cuspy 0.6 and the manager’s track record is weaker to its peers.  Despite this the dm is >100dm wide to the curve which isn’t in line with the relative weakness of the bond.  BBBs trade 372dm-457dm (2021/2023 RP profiles) which is flat to 350dm-500dm context over the past week in the same cohorts.  At the wide end is ICG’s ICG 2017-1A D 457dm / 5.8y WAL and this is driven particularly by velocity of defaults as it carries a 2.3% ADR and risk taking in the form of a higher WARF 3308 and higher Sub80 bucket 9.5.  BBs trade 597dm-1031dm with the short end (3-4y WAL) trading 600dm area which is tighter than recent 640dm context.  The longer WAL (2020-2024 RP profiles) trade 706dm-1031dm vs recent 600dm-800dm context with 3 bonds wide to this spread, these 3 bonds have markedly lower MVOCs circa 101%, carry higher ADRs 1.4-1.7 whilst at the wide end is Sound Point’s SNDPT 2017-2A E with a cuspy IDT cushion +0.03 which is relevant to know since this bond is PIKable.

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 9 trades today with 2 of them being AAA, one floater and one fixed rate. The floater, Jubilee 2015-XVI, traded very tight at 130dm. It is very short at 1.7yrs and has passed its reinvestment end date although it hasn’t started paying down yet. The fixed rate is Arbour 4. It traded at 100.01 which is priced at around 130 over to its call date.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 5 x BB trades. The trading range is from 660dm to 730dm. This is about 10bps wider. The BB curve is very steep from the 6yr point to the 8yr point – around 80bps.

    The 2 x B have both traded at 869dm. This is around 40bps tighter on our curve.


  • 20 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Mostly lower mezz trading today with 24 covers – 1 x AAA, 1 x A, 14 x BBB and 8 x BB, US LLI ticking up 17bps on the week with CLOs typically trading flat to recent tights across the stack, whilst lower quality bonds continue to underperform the benchmark curve in lower mezz.  The AAA trade is ORIX’s MARNR 2017-4A A 122dm / 2.7y WAL which is flat to recent 120dm-130dm context, the ORIX bond is clean so trades as benchmark.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The single-A trade is First Eagle’s HULLS 2014-1A CR 324dm / 2.9y WAL, this is a rare short dated profile (EoRP 2018) not seen this month to date, with 2019 RP profile trading in high200s context – the CCC is high at 21, ADR is high 4.5 and WA collateral px 85.5 but the bond is covered by MV (MVOC 115.6) showing the effect of a portfolio going static.  BBBs trade 368dm-491dm with trading context 330dm-470dm over the past week in similar profiles.  Anchorage’s SIX10 2016-2RA CR 491dm / 4.9y WAL covers through recent wides – with WAS high at 4.2 (it’s driven not by cov-lites but by single-B issuers like Windstream, CPK, Brown Jordan), high cov-lite 32% and compromised IDT cushion -0.7.  BBs trade 691dm-1036dm vs 600dm-800dm recent context with 4 bonds well wide of this 907dm-1036dm.  The MVOCs on these 4 bonds is cuspy circa 101area, ADRs are high 1.1-1.7, cov-lites are high at 35% and IDT cushion negative in the widest 2 bonds (see PriceABS trade listing for full details).

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 14 trades today with just 1 AAA. Sound Point Euro 1 traded to call at 100.27 / 131dm to call, which shows as 160dm to maturity.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 4 x AA trades. They have traded between 203dm and 218dm. The widest trade is Ares 12 which has the highest margin at 175bps and trades at 100.02 and has the most refi risk. Overall these AA trades are about 12bps tighter than our curve.

    There are 4 x BBB trades. The range of traded spreads is wide – from 332dm to 449dm and these spreads correlate well with the stated margins on the bonds. At the tight end (332dm) we have Tikehau 3 which pays 235bps and is performing well. Then Penta 3 and St Pauls 5 traded around 395dm. They pay around 290bps and are not quite so clean especially Penta 3 which has a slightly low MV OC and Jnr OC Cushion. Last of all is Harvest 22 which traded at 449dm. It has a margin of 400bps but is clean. We’re seeing our spread curve moving about 40bps tighter at the short end but largely unchanged at the long end.

    There are 5 x BB trades with a range from 634dm to 730dm. BlackRock Euro 1 traded tight at 634dm but that is because it has a low margin of 442bps. The wide trade is Avondale Park but that is because it has the highest margin, traded at 102.07 and actually traded at 462dm to call. We don’t see any change to our BB curve.


  • 19 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    An extremely buoyant day with 59 covers, mostly in mezz – 2 x AAA, 5 x AA, 11 x A, 11 x BBB and 30 x BB with tightening across the board as markets continue to rally.  AAA trade a shade tighter 100dm-123dm with a very short dated Barings bond very close to breaching the 100dm barrier BABSN 2013-IA AR 100dm / 1.5y WAL, the tightest trade we have seen in the past week from this cohort is Allstate Investment’s AIMCO 2015-AA 105dm / 1.4y WAL last week which had a better MVOC (151) versus the Barings bond 146.6 whilst Sub80 assets are comparable across both deals, with Allstate a less experienced manager with an excellent track record versus a benchmark manager in Barings.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AAs trade 162dm-215dm with again a firmer level at the short end of the curve (recent context 180dm-200dm), AXA IM’s ALLEG 2015-1A B1R 162dm / 2.5y WAL (EoRP Jul-2019) despite some credit issues (WARF 3942, CCC 20.5, IDT cushion -2.7) seeing firmer bids given the short duration.  At the ‘wide’ end is a recent vintage 3.0 CLO CIFC 2020-2A B that trades above par 100.30 and 215dm / 6y WAL with strong cushions (5.1 IDT cushion) and a defensive portfolio (WARF 2757 / CCC 1.4) meaning investors are not prepared to bid this any further away from par at this point in the cycle.  Single-As trade 201dm-300dm tighter to 240dm-360dm horizon this month to date, with the curve shifting tighter.  At the tight end is a benchmark manager Blackrock’s MAGNE 2015-16A C1R 201dm / 4.2y WAL with their deals serial outperformers from a credit perspective (WARF 3063, CCC 4.9, MVOC 116.5, Sub80 3.7, strong cushions and WA collateral px 96.1).  BBB trade 381dm-494dm which is in line with recent context, albeit weaker bonds than we have seen over the past week from a credit perspective holding firm at these levels with no bias to widening.  The 30 x BBs today trade 603dm-804dm represents tightening given recent 700dm-815dm context with 9 x BBs cover inside 700dm across benchmark names like CSAM, Oak Hill. GSO, Neuberger and CIFC dominating – see PriceABS trade listing for full details.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    A very busy day of mezz trading today. There are 9 x AA trades. 3 of them come from deals in pay down – Harvest X, Orwell Park & Elm Park. Harvest X is the most paid down and the AA only has a 2.1yr WAL – it traded at 152dm. The two GSO deals in paydown traded around 200dm. The other 6 AA trades were in a range from 225dm to 240dm. These regular AAs are about 10bps tighter on average than our curve.

    There are 5 x A trades. 2 of them have priced to call – AlbaCore 1 & Northwoods 21. The three that priced to maturity have priced in a range from 305dm to 330dm, which is unchanged on our curve.

    There are 11 x BBB trades. The trading range is from 390dm to 470dm. Predictably the wide trade is GLG Euro 5. Also at the wide end are Purple Finance 2 at 467dm and Toro 6 at 469dm. Toro 6 is a clean deal but Purple Finance 2 does have a slightly lower than normal Jnr OC cushion at 1.72%. At the tight end of the range we have Sutton Park and Madison Park 9. It’s hard to be definitive about the movement of the curve. We certainly do think it has further tightened but perhaps by only around 15bps because some of the some of the spread differences we have observed could be due to less weight being given to impaired credit metrics than was the case in the recent past.

    There are 10 x BB trades. Their trading range is from 620dm to 715dm. None of the deals are impaired. The spreads broadly follow the WAL term structure. Overall we see the curve having a parallel shift downwards by around 10bps but also steepening by 30 to 40bps between the short end and the long end.

    There are 3 x B trades. ALME 5 traded at 830dm. Penta 2 traded at 928dm which is actually quite tight given its low MVOC of 100.69% and low Jnr OC cushion of 0.3%. But then it has a low stated margin which would help it to trade tighter. Jubilee 2019-23 traded at 1018dm. It’s a clean deal but this bond has a high margin of 960bps which explains its traded level.


  • 18 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    24 covers today – 18 x AAA, 1 x BBB, 5 x BB.  AAA trade 119dm-143dm in line with recent tights, the bond profiles are typically clean with 2 bonds at the wide end with weaker MVOCs (c. 141 MVOC) and corresponding WA collateral px 92-94.  But these metrics are marginal as are the manager profiles which are again marginally weaker as compared to peers, eg. Symphony and Marble Point.

    USD CLO Mezz.Equity

    The BBB trade is TCW’s TCW 2019-2A D1 391dm / 8.3 WAL (2024 RP profile) with recent context 360dm-450dm, this bond has clean metrics overall and an outstanding manager record versus peers so fully supportive of the tight dm.  BB trade in a narrow dispersion again 742dm-815dm which are in line with recent 720dm-830dm context in similar profiles, weaker manager profile and higher ADR have a bigger pull on the wide end with OakTree’s OAKCL 2019-4A E cover 815dm / 8y WAL ADR 1.81 and weaker corresponding manager metrics (ADR across CLOs of 2.26), albeit all other metrics on this bond being reasonable from a fundamental point of view.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    A busy day of mezz trading today. Starting with the two AAs, both of them are Black Diamond bonds. BD 2017-2 with a 140bps margin traded at 98.50 / 224dm and BD 2019-1 with a 195bps margin traded at 99.25 / 254dm.

    The only single A trade is Halcyon 2018-1 which traded at 330dm. This is about 10% wider than its WAL point on our single A curve but we expected that since this is a recurring feature of Bardin Hill secondary trades.

    There are 2 x BBB trades, which have both traded around 460dm. This is also an unchanged spread curve for us. The Accunia bond traded around 10% wider than the raw curve predicted but this is also expected.

    There are 12 x BB trades today. The short end of the curve (approx. 6yr WAL) has traded around 645dm (about 50bps tighter). The 7yr point has traded around 670dm (around 40bps tighter) and the 8yr point, after adjusting for some specific credit features of Madison Park Euro 8 and Carlyle 2015-1 traded around 700dm (about 16bps tighter). The Madison Park and Carlyle bonds have low MVOCs and Jnr OC cushions.


  • 17 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    33 covers today across all rating levels  - 8 x AAA, 5 x A, 10 x BBB, 9 x BB, 1 x B.  AAAs trade 127dm-169dm with a mixed bag of demographics explaining the wide dispersion.  At the tight end are conventional 1st pay AAAs with good performance trading in similar context to recent levels 127dm-136dm, thereafter the trading range 147dm-169dm is made up of 2nd pay AAAs that trade back to 1st pay AND weak 1st pay credits, for instance at the wide end is a weak 1st pay from Steele Creek STCR 2015-1A AR 169dm / 2.3y WAL – low MVOC 145.5, high CCC 11.8, high ADR 1.3 and low WA collateral px 93.1 whilst the manager’s record is weak to peers.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Single-As trade 181dm-251dm across shorter dated profiles (2019-2022 RP profiles) which is tighter than 280dm-360dm context seen this month to date, granted there have not been many shorter dated single-As with good performance like today’s batch proving the strength of the bid in high quality paper.  The BBBs today are again of high quality and trade 325dm-469dm which is in line with 325dm-500dm context this month with a recent vintage bond from Bain Capital BCC 2020-2A D propping up the wide end 469dm / 6.5y WAL not due to performance but due to the fact that it is a 3.0 with a high coupon / defensive portfolio and structure with a cover over par 100.68.  BB trade 696dm-853dm in shorter WALs in similar context to recent trading 700dm-820dm with an outlier CSAM’s MDPK 2016-24A ER 853dm / 5.7y WAL – cuspy MVOC 101.5, high CCC 16.7, high ADR 1.2, high Sub80 8.6 and low WA collateral px 93.7.  The single-B trade is MidOcean’s MIDO 2018-9A F 1160dm / 7.6y WAL (2023 RP profile), with no comps this month other than a downgraded BB (now single-B) with similar RP profile cover 734dm / 6.98y WAL, however this is in line with a First Eagle single-B cover of last week 1177dm / 6.3y WAL (2022 RP profile), the bond itself is covered by MV (MVOC 101.3), ADR 1.1, Sub80 4.9, CCC 9.2 and has good IDT cushion of 2.8% so all in all reasonable performance and a good proxy single-B data point.

    EUR AAA CLO

    9 trades today – 3 of them AAA. Cairn 3 traded at 99.71 / 135dm. Fair Oaks 2 has a very high margin of 190bps and traded to first call which is a price of 100.41. GoldenTree 4 also has a high margin of 155bps and traded at 99.74, which looks like the bid side of a price to call.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 3 x BBB trades. Each one has a different story. The cleanest bond is Carlyle 2015-1. This traded at 463dm which, for us, exhibits a further widening in the BBB curve of around 40bps. GLG Euro 1 traded at 445dm. This bond is clean enough but Man Group usually attract a spread premium. Halcyon 2016 traded at 572dm. The bond is in poor shape (MVOC of 109.38% and Jnr OC cushion of 0.09%) and the manager Bardin Hill also has a spread premium attached.

    There are 2 x BB trades. Aurium 5 traded at 668dm and Mackay Shields Euro 1 at 738dm.

    The only single B, Voya Euro 1, traded at 854dm.


  • 16 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Today saw limited flow with 7 covers – 1 x AAA, 2 x AA, 1 X A, 2 x BBB and 1 x B.  The AAA trade is Carlson’s CATLK 2013-1A A1RR 149dm / 3.5y WAL (2022 RP profile) which is has weaker metrics and is at the wide end of 135dm-150dm recent context in this profile – the ADR is elevated 1.24, IDT cushion is cuspy 0.15, WA collateral px is 92.2 and CCC 10.7 whilst the manager’s record is weak to its peers.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    AA trades 189dm-203dm which are in line with trading this month to date.  The single-A trade is Invesco’s BTNY2 2018-1A B 233dm / 6y WAL (2023 RP profile), this dm is tight to any single-A this month to date due to the fact that the manager has an impressive record and that has translated into excellent performance metrics on this bond – strong MVOC 116.9, cushions are healthy and Sub80 assets is only 3.9.  BBBs trade 406dm-451dm (2023/2024 RP profiles) with similar context trading 400dm-500dm, no outlier bonds today to report.  The BB trade is Octagon’s OCT22 2014-1A ERR 734dm / 7y WAL (2023 RP profiles) which again is in line with recent activity in 710dm-800dm context in this profile but with the IDT cushion negative there is risk that this bond may also trip Jnr OC test (current cushion 0.6) and defer interest, the bond is covered by MV (MVOC 101.4).

    EUR AAA CLO

    A busy day today – mostly in the mezzanine space, but there is one AAA trade. St Pauls 6 traded at 151dm. This also looks like a softening, as we saw yesterday in BBs. This bond has a short WAL at 1.8yrs and yet it traded 12bps than our curve predicted.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    All the rest of today’s trades are mezz. There are 15 original single As, although one of them, Castle Park has been upgraded to AA as it is paying down. Castle Park traded at 230dm. All the other single As traded between 280dm and 330dm. We’ve seen the curve flatten with 5yr vs 7yr about 10bps flatter. One of the bonds, Madison Park 8, is slightly distressed with an MVOC of 118.5% and a Jnr OC cushion of 0.52% and it was the widest trade at around 330dm.

    There are 5 single B trades. All bar North Westerly 5 are in pay down. The 4 bonds in paydown traded between 760dm and 850dm for WALs between 4.4yrs and 6yrs. North Westerly 5 traded at 913dm for a 6.9yr WAL.


  • 13 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    17 covers to round off the week – 2 x AAA, 2 x A, 7 x BBB, 5 x BB and 1 x B, whilst US LLI ticked up 81bps on the week and CLO trading remains firm and in line with this.  AAAs trade 118dm-130dm which is in line with recent tights, both bonds have clean metrics and strong MVOCs. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    Single-As trade 319dm-357dm (2022/2025 RP profiles), with Seix’s MVW 2013-1A C1R 357dm / 5.7y WAL at the wide end at recent wides, the bond has a weak MVOC 109.2, high ADR 2.3, neg IDT cushion 1.8 and WA collateral px 92.7 all contributing to the softer level on this bond.  BBBs trade again in a narrower dispersion 358dm-470dm similar to recent trading which has been in 340dm-570dm context, there are no outliers to report today whilst at the tight end is a clean bond from NY Life FLAT 2017-1A D cover 358dm / 5.8y WAL (MVOC 109.2, Sub80 3.8, CCC 5.7, ADR 0.11, WA collateral px 95.6).  BBs trade 695dm-758dm (2022-2023 RP profiles) which is a touch tighter than 700dm-820dm recent context with all bonds today clean.  There is a rare single-B trade today First Eagle’s WINDR 2017-2A F 1177dm / 6.3y WAL, although this trades wide of single-Bs we have seen recently in 750dm-1100dm context, the trading we have seen has been in downgraded BB bonds whilst the First Eagle bond is a true second loss bond, granted this bond has a cuspy MVOC 100.7 and an elevated ADR 1.22 the remainder of the metrics are reasonable (Sub80 3.6, IDT cushion 1.2, WA collateral px 95.2).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    2 x BB and 1 x B trades to look at today. We have seen our first widening since the vaccine induced rally started. The 2 x BB traded at 715dm and 745dm which is 50bps wider for our curve, on average.

    The single B traded at 1005dm which is also quite a wide level but this could be more deal specific. St Pauls 8 has a low Jnr OC cushion of 0.73% and this may account for the wide level.


  • 12 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Following the pause with Veteran’s Day we saw 29 covers today, mostly mezz whilst US LLI index conceding 26bps versus pre-Vet Day – 3 x AAA, 1 x A, 10 x BBB, 15 x BB.  AAAs trade 105dm-124dm with short dated profiles (2020 RP profiles) dominating the tight end, whilst Onex’s OCP 2014-5A A1R at the wide end 124dm / 3.93y WAL (2023 RP profile), all bonds today have clean metrics and trading range is in line with recent tights.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The single-A bond today is Seix’s MVW 2013-1A C1R 357dm / 5.75y WAL (2022 RP profile) which is wide to early 300s recent context, this being said the Seix bond has credit issues with a high ADR 2.33, IDT cushion -1.8 and WA collateral px 92.8 all contributing to the softer dm.  BBBs trade 281dm-520dm with a 2-handle (vs mid-late 300s recent context) at the tight end for the first time in a long time, albeit this Allianz bond WSTC 2014-2A CR having a short WAL given RP ended early 2019 (281dm / 3.2y WAL).  The remainder of the BBBs trade 336dm-520dm which is broadly in line with recent levels however the TPG TICP 2020-15A D trades through the tights at 336dm / 8.6y WAL and this bond benefits from a conservative portfolio (WARF 2986 / Sub80 0.7, ADR 0.3, WA collateral px 97.1) but has a high cov-lite balance 48.8% along with high cushions given a 3.0 structure.  BBs trade 704dm-826dm (2020-2025 RP profiles) which is within recent  640dm-1100dm context, all the bonds are relatively clean with the only weak credit a Carlyle CGMS 2016-1X DR 823dm / 5.3y WAL – cuspy MVOC 100.9, CCC 12, ADR 1.9 and cuspy IDT cushion 0.1.

    EUR AAA CLO

    Trading resumed today after the Veterans Day Holiday. There are 2 x AAA trades. Both trades are around 142dm. For us this is about 20bps tighter on our curve but we are catching up since these are the first AAA trades we have seen since the vaccine generated rally.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 5 BBB trades. Four of the trades were between 385dm and 405dm but Penta 5 was at 435dm which is probably because of its high margin of 360bps. The buyer paid around 98.13 and didn’t want to pay around the par number he would have had to if it had traded in line with the other spreads because that would have left him no room for any future price appreciation. The 4 trades around 400dm are showing an average tightening of 21bps on our curve.

    There are 5 x BB trades which are between 660dm and 715dm. Spreads are roughly unchanged in the last day or two in BBB, because we had already reflected several consecutive days of tightening previously.

    There are 3 x B trades. CVC 11 and Ares 10 traded around 915dm while BlueMountain Fuji EUR 5 traded at 993dm. BlueMountain is about 1yr longer, has a slightly lower MV OC but also maybe some of the premium is due to the manager.


  • 10 November 2020

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity 

    21 covers today, all mezz with the general tightening theme continuing across mezz – 6 x AA, 3 x A, 6 x BBB and 6 x BB.  AAs trade tighter 186dm-217dm, with trades comfortably inside 200dm today.  At the tight end is Voya’s VOYA 2017-1A A2 186dm / 4.8y WAL which is a fairly archetype AA bond (MVOC 122.5, Sub80 6.4, WARF 3214, CCC 10, ADR 0.97).  However at the wide end is only a marginally weaker credit, Crescent Cap’s ATCLO 2017-8A B 217dm / 4.5y WAL – ADR 1.7, higher cov lite exposure 33.7 and a weaker manager as the key differences.  Single-As trade 303dm-336dm in line with recent context with MVOC and WARF playing a key role in the slight tiering seen today (see PriceABS trading listing for details).  BBB overlap with the single-A and trade 324dm-400dm with some very short dated bonds and a static CLO migrating and obscuring the tight end of the range 324dm-371dm with more conventional 2024 RP profiles trading tighter 397dm-400dm versus 430dm-490dm recent context.  It is interesting to note that the ARES 2019-52A D which covers 400dm / 7.5y WAL has 91% cov-lite in it’s existing reference pool (with WARF not suffering too much at 3434) which is significantly higher than we have seen.  BBs trade 703dm-886dm in line with recent context 720dm-900dm with Neuberger’s NEUB 2017-25A E 703dm / 6.8y WAL at the tight end – low Sub80 3.3, healthy MVOC 103.9, WA collateral px 95.98 and other metrics broadly in line.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The post COVID vaccine rally is confirmed today with 5 mezzanine trades in BBB & BB. The 3 x BBB have traded between 390dm and 430dm. This is around 100bps of tightening over and above what occurred yesterday. The tightest of the trades is Barings Euro 2016-1 which has actually breached its Jnr OC test (-0.38%) although it does have a good MV OC (114.7%).

    The 2 x BB traded at 695dm. This is about 145bps tighter than the last time we saw BBs trade – which was before this rally. Both bonds are clean with MV OCs around 106% and Jnr OC cushions around 3%.


  • 9 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Seven covers today – 4 x AAA, 1 x A, 2 x BBB with a continued improved tone with US LLI continuing it's improvement up 94bps on Friday.  High quality AAAs continue to firm up with trading range today 118dm-128dm with a 3.0 high coupon outlier from Octagon OCT48 2020-3A A 149dm / 4.6y WAL.  At the tight end is CVC’s APID XXXA A1A 118dm / 4.3y WAL – strong MVOC 164 and metrics very healthy. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The single-A trade today is Oak Tree’s OAKCL 2014-1A BR 336dm / 5.2y WAL (2021 RP profile) which trades at the mid-wide end of 300dm-350dm recent context in this profile – the bond has some weakness with a lower MVOC 108.6, ADR 1.9, IDT cushion -3.2, CCC 14.7 and WA collateral px 92.7 but despite this holds up in dm terms versus recent comps with higher MVOCs.  BBBs trade today 324dm-426dm (2020/2021 RP profiles) tight to 450dm-570dm recent context, at the tight end is Palmer Sq’s PSTAT 2020-1A C 324dm / 4.6y WAL with excellent performance / defensive portfolio (3.0 CLO) – Sub80 1.8, WARF 2852, CCC 5.4 and WA collateral px 96.85.  At the wide end is KKR 17 D that covers inside recent comps at 426dm / 5.2y WAL with reasonable performance (high CCC 17.6, MVOC 107.4, ADR 0.9, IDT cushion cuspy 0.34, Sub80 assets 4.7).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    We have a bounce today in line with other credit markets and stock markets on COVID vaccine news. 7 x BBBs traded, between 430dm and 490dm, which is an average of 46bps tighter on the curve. The average traded price is 99.70.


  • 6 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    13 covers to end off this week – 4 x AAA, 1 x AA, 1 x A, 1 x BBB and 6 x BB.  AAAs trade in a narrow dispersion 123dm-136dm with levels firming up very slightly towards the 120dm mark at this end of the cap stack in high quality names like Blackrock and Neuberger.  The US LLI has ticked up 108bps on the week and is now less than 50bps off the 2020 high. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The AA bond that trades today is CBAM’s CBAM 2017-1A B 202dm / 4.8y WAL (2022 RP profile) which is at the tight end of 200dm-240dm context – this bond has clean metrics.  The single-A is a rare short dated bond HLA 2014-1A CR (Bardin Hill) 336dm / 1.6y WAL (2018 RP profile), this is an impaired deal which is deleveraging (CCC 19.5, Sub80 35.4, WARF 3830, ADR 5.1 and -18 IDT cushion) with MV shortfalls on the 2nd and 3rd loss tranches, this tranche has coverage given it’s more senior in the paydown schedule 164.8 MVOC.  PIPK 2020-6A D from Partners Group (BBB) covers 449dm / 5.1y WAL (2021 RP profile) tight to recent 510dm-570dm context, this bond is of high quality and is a 3.0 post covid issue so has plenty of cushion (IDT cushion 5.4%) and a defensive portfolio (WARF 2625, WA collateral px 98.4, MVOC 116.5) so explains the tighter level.  BBs trade 669dm-964dm across numerous profiles which is not dissimilar to recent activity at this rating level.  At the tight end is GoldenTree’s GLM 2019-4A E 669dm / 7.8y WAL (2024 RP profile) which is tight to 750dm-850dm recent context (the deal is performing well – Sub80 1.5, CCC 6.6, WARF 3045, WA collateral px 96.5, MVOC 104.8), at the wide end is Alcentra’s SHACK 2017-11A E 964dm / 7.3y WAL (2022 RP profile) with a cuspy MVOC 100.6, high CCC 11.2, higher WARF 3365 and cuspy IDT cushion 0.97).

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 3 x AAA trades today. They have traded between 150dm and 160dm. This is about 4bps tighter on the AAA curve.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The Richmond Park AA traded at 223dm which is also about 5bps tighter than we had predicted.


  • 5 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Today we have seen the first trades this week with the election saga almost drawing to a head and the US LLI 100 rebounding 96bps as a sign the markets have not softened.  There are 20 covers today – 10 x AAA, 1 x AA, 3 x A, 5 x BBB and 1 x BB.  AAAs traded tighter 127dm-167dm with a very short dater from Onex OCP 2015-9A A1R 105dm / 1.4y WAL, furthermore PGIMs DRSLF 2018-57A A covers 128dm / 4.1y WAL (2023 RP profile) versus 134dm-160dm context since month end.  Whilst at the wide end there are 2 impaired deals from MJX and HIG which are running ADRs well in excess of 1% and higher concentrations of Sub80 priced assets.

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The AA bond is Sound Point’s SNDPT 2017-4A A2A 193dm / 5.3y WAL (2023 RP profile) which trades tighter than recent 200dm-230dm context, this bond has clean metrics.  Single-As trade in a narrow dispersion 283dm-300dm (2024 RP profiles) and once again tighter to 250dm-290dm recent context with fairly clean bonds trading.  BBBs trade 387dm-570dm which are in line with recent context with no signs of tightening.  The BB bond is MVEW 2017-1X E 1087dm / 5.7y WAL which again is in line with the most recent data point in this profile towards the back end of October, this bond has mixed metrics with a low WARF 2966, ‘low’ CCC 7.7, MVOC > par 101, Sub80 5.9 but has cuspy IDT cushion of 0.46.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just one EUR trade yesterday. Dunedin Park single A traded at 308dm. This is in line with the curve we already had.


  • 3 November 2020

    EUR AAA CLO

    On US Election Day there are no USD trades and only 5 EUR trades. The 3 AAA trades were between 157dm and 172dm which doesn’t evidence any trend in spreads.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The 2 single A’s traded at 307dm and 326dm which is about 30bps tighter than previously.


  • 2 November 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Today saw a long list of 29 AAAs pre-election whilst the US LLI retracing 10bps from Friday close, with trading range 124dm-206dm.  There is a softer tone for weaker credits with 6 trades > 170dm which are non-3.0 high coupon.  MVOC’s are in early-mid 140% context for these credits which is lower than 150% benchmark whilst a number of weaker managers (MJX, Sound Point, Trinitas) feature at this end and asset pricing < 80 has crept just over 10% on a couple of these outliers (see PriceABS trade listing for details).  At the wide end is AGL’s AGL 2020-4A A 206dm / 2.43y WAL – this is a May close 3.0 CLO with a high coupon +221 and a very defensive structure (eg. IDT cushion almost 6%) and portfolio (eg. WARF 2727, WA collateral price 98.23 / CCC 1.97).

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    Just two BBB trades today. They traded at 441dm and 465dm. This is about 40bps tighter than yesterday’s BBB trades.


  • 30 October 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    Just the one cover today, PGIM's DRSLF 2018-55A A1 141dm / 3.94y WAL (2023 RP profile) which is at the tight end of 40dm-175dm context this week.  The MVOC is strong 156.2, Sub80 assets are low 3.9, WARF is strong 3171 but IDT cushion is cuspy 0.98 whilst ADR is highly elevated 2.43.  However PGIM is a benchmark manager so the tight dm refllects this.

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 6 AAA trades today. AAA spreads broadly unchanged although it looks like the curve might have steepened a little pivoting around the 4yr WAL point. Less than 4yrs is about 5bps tighter and greater than 4yrs is about 3bps wider.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    There are 2 x BBB and bot traded around 495dm. This is about 35bps wider.

    The only BB traded at 827dm which is about 50bps wider.

    The only single B traded at 1257dm. Barings Euro 2018-1 does have a low MV OC (100.18%) and low Jnr OC cushion (0.37%) but even allowing for this we estimate a further 40bps of widening across the curve.


  • 29 October 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    18 covers today, mostly mezz with some softening seen especially in BBBs as the US LLI has dropped 75bps since last Friday – 1 x AAA, 1 x AA, 7 x BBB, 9 x BB.  The AAA trade BMILK 2018-1A A1 (GSO) covers 142dm / 4.4y WAL (2023 RP profile) at the tight end of 140dm-175dm context this week – the bond has a strong MVOC 154.6, low Sub80 4.1, low ADR 0.5 and healthy cushions from a benchmark manager. 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The AA trade is ICG 2014-2X BRR (ICG) 220dm / 5.5y WAL (2023 RP profile) which trades towards the wider end of 195dm-230dm context this week – Sub80 assets is high 9.0, WARF 3495, CCC high 13.1, ADR is elevated 1.4 and IDT cushion is negative.  BBBs trade 477dm-520dm (2022-2024 RP profiles) wide of early-mid 400s dm context recently.  The MVOCs on todays bonds are 108-109 so no material dispersion and there are no significantly impaired bonds so the effect of the softening has impacted BBBs by around 70bps.  BBs trade 642dm-1084dm (2018-2023 RP profiles) with 700dm-930dm context this week in these profiles, there are 2 bonds outside of this context KKR 17 E (KKR) and PARL 2018-1A D (DoubleLine) that have cuspier MVOC 100-102, higher WARFs 3400 area and cuspy IDT cushions and the fact that DoubleLine's bond props up the wide end (1084dm / 7.6y WAL) being a weaker manager than its peers.

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 5 AAA trades today. AAA spreads definitely wider – about 9bps wider across the curve. Range is from 160dm to 170dm apart from Aurium 6 which priced to call because of its high stated margin (190bps). It traded at 100.46 which optically is 233dm to maturity.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    It’s a similar story with AAs. The curve is 16bps wider with spreads now between 225dm and 240dm.

    The only single A trade, CVC Cordatus 10, traded at 308dm and at the BB level CVC Cordatus 9 traded at 760dm.


  • 28 October 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    10 covers today – 3 x AAA, 4 x A, 3 x BB.  AAA trade 145dm-162dm with a recently closed 3.0 CLO from PGIM +165bps high coupon bond DRSLF 2020-86A A at the ‘wide’ end 162dm / 4.3y WAL, as seen regularly this profile has a defensive portfolio (WARF 2879, CCC 3.1, MVOC 157.8, Sub80 0.7, WAS 3.2 and WA collateral price > 96 at 96.3).

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The BSL CLO Single-As trade 268dm-305dm which is in line with similar context this week.  There is a MM CLO from GSO DIMND 2019-1A C that covers 397dm / 5.0y WAL, first we have seen in a while at this level of mezz, the metrics look reasonable with MVOC 120.1, Sub80 6.9, ADR 0.06, IDT cushion is at the low end 1.6 whilst the WAS 5.4 is clearly much higher than BSL but conservative for a MM CLO.  This is a useful data point nonetheless.  BBs trade 806dm-922dm, bar belled with short/long dated WALs, but with 2024 RP profiles with a longer WAL these trade at the tighter end 806dm-837dm which is at the middle/wide end of this week’s 750dm-850dm context.  The shorter WAL 2018 RP profile CSAM bond MDPK 2014-12A E covers 922dm / 3.3y WAL which is wide to a similar GSO bond yesterday BOWPK 2014-1X E that traded in early 700dm context.  The CSAM bond is weaker with MVOC 103.6 (vs 106.3 on GSO), WARF is high 4354 (vs 3618), ADR 1.4 (vs 1.1) and WA collateral price is sub 90 (89.4) so these account for the wider dm.

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 11 trades today with 4 of them at the AAA level. Tikehau 1 has started paying down and traded at 145dm. The other AAAs traded between 155 and 160dm which is an average widening of 4bps.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The only AA trade is GLG Euro 2 which traded at 289dm. Even allowing for the spread premium attached to Man Group shelves this is a wide level and may perhaps signify that AA spreads have widened.

    There are 2 x A trades. Babson Euro 2014-2 traded at 342dm and Jubilee 2014-11 at 396dm. Even after allowing for a spread premium for the Jubilee bond due to its low MVOC (116.08%) and its breached Jnr OC cushion (-0.7%) we see the single A curve 36bps wider.

    There are 2 x BBB. BNPP Euro 2019 traded at 472dm which is 29bps wider than our curve predicted. Avondale Park traded to call because of its high margin (510bps). This is a price of 100.78 which backs out to 542dm to maturity.

    The two BBs traded as follows: Barings Euro 2016-1 at 846dm and Providus 2 at 803dm. The Barings deal has breached its Jnr OC cushion (-0.38%) and we thought could have traded wider.


  • 27 October 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    A busier day with 42 covers – 11 x AAA, 9 x AA, 6 x BBB, 14 x BB and 2 x B, the US LLI fell for another day -12bps.  The AAAs trade 139dm-177dm with the wide end dominated by two weaker bonds – MJX’s VENTR 2018-35A AS 175dm / 4.6y WAL (low MVOC 144.6, ADR 2.5, high WAS 3.98, IDT cushion 0.3) and Highland Cap’s ACIS 2014-5A A1 177dm / 0.6y WAL (0.45 factor but CCC 26.4, WARF 4092, ADR 1.6, IDT cushion -1.5).

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The AAs trade 201dm-229dm which is within recent context 180dm-240dm.  BBBs trade 412dm-517dm which is also in line with recent context, at the wide end is MJX’s VENTR 2016-24A D1R 517dm / 4.8y WAL – high ADR 1.5, cuspy IDT cushion 0.4 and WA collateral price 93.2.  BBs trade 704dm-1101dm which again is in line with recent context, bonds with elevated ADRs and cuspy MVOCs populate the wide end (see PriceABS trade listing).  Rarer single-Bs trade 1195dm-1419dm (2023 RP profiles) with trading context this month a fairly wide dispersion 770dm-1350dm, so the outlier is BlueMountain’s BLUEM 2018-3A F 1419dm / 7.6y WAL – cuspy MVOC 100.01, CCC 13, ADR 2.2 and cuspy IDT cushion 0.2.

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 28 trades today and the only AAA among them is Harvest 11 which traded at 150dm.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The 3 x AA traded. The tightest trade is ALME 5 which traded at 216dm. Then GLG Euro 4 traded at 241dm which is due to its low MV OC, low Jnr OC cushion and the Manager name. Widest is Halcyon 18-1 which traded at 269dm. The performance is OK on this deal and it is mainly because the Manager is Bardin Hill.

    There are 5 x BBB which have traded between 410dm and 490dm. At the tighter end are the GSO and Commerzbank bonds and the wider end are Barings and Carlyle. The Barings bond does have a low Jnr OC cushion and the Carlyle bond has a low MV OC.

    There are 10 x BBs which have traded in a range from 650dm to 940dm. The tightest trade is Tymon Park for GSO. Most trades have a 700handle for spread but the two widest by far are St Pauls 3R at 903dm and Madison Park Euro 8 at 940dm. Both these levels can be explained by the poor performance of these deals. They both have low Jnr OC cushions of around 0.4% and low MVOCs of around 104.7%.

    There are 9 x B trades. Leaving aside the Dryden 63 bond which is GBP denominated and is therefore a special case, the others traded in a range from 930dm to 1230dm. A number of these bonds are not clean. The three widest trades in EUR are Barings 2016-1, Newhaven 2 (Bain) and Madison Park Euro 7 (CSAM). All of these have low MVOCs and low Jnr OC cushions (in the case of Barings 2016-1 it has been breached). The Dryden 63 GBP bond traded very wide at 1490dm probably because there is less diversity in the pool. Its actual credit metrics look OK.


  • 26 October 2020

    USD CLO AAA

    22 covers today, the vast majority IG – 2 x AAA, 6 x AA, 13 x A, 1 x BB with a little softening in this seniors.  There is a 1st and 2nd pay AAA today, the 1st pay JTWN 2019-14A A1 (Investcorp) covers 163dm / 5.5y WAL which trades wide to recent 140dm context, the US LLI softened 4pts / 18bps today versus Friday close and Investcorp is a benchmark manager with strong fundamentals on this bond.  The 2nd pay VENTR 2018-31A A2 (MJX) covers 215dm / 4.8y WAL versus late-100s dm context seen this month in 1st pay FRNs, albeit this manager has a weaker record vs peers and this bond has weaker fundamentals (MVOC 138.7, Sub80 7.0, ADR 1.1 and IDT cushion <2 at 1.5). 

    USD CLO Mezz/Equity

    The AAs trade 195dm-239dm across RP profiles in line with 180dm-240dm context over the past week, at the wide end is again an MJX bond VENTR 2017-26X B 239dm / 4.3y WAL which is 26dm wide to CSAM’s MDPK 2015-16A A2R (which also has weak fundamentals but a stronger manager) – weak MVOC 121.6, high ADR 1.9 and neg IDT cushion -0.4.  There are a large number of single-As trades today 251dm-352dm trading range across 2021-2024 RP profiles which have traded 245dm-300dm context over the past week.  At the wider end are 3 recently closed high coupon 3.0 CLOs with significant cushion and defensive portfolios that tier to a higher dm, as we have seen recently the gap between lower cash px / legacy CLO 2.0 and higher cash px / post-covid defensive 3.0.  The BB trade today is CIFC’s CIFC 2013-1A DR 932dm / 7.1y WAL (2022 RP profile) which trades in the middle of 720dm-1120dm context this month, there is mild weakness in this bond counteracted by the manager’s strengths – MVOC is just above par 101.6, CCC 10.7, ADR 1.1, IDT cushion is 1.1 and WA collateral price is 1-2pts lower than benchmark at 94.3.

    EUR AAA CLO

    There are 8 trades today with one of them being AAA. Bosphorus Euro 4 traded at 99.67 / 157dm. Yesterday Sound Point Euro 4 priced at 110bps over floored Euribor for the AAA as reported by Bloomberg.

    EUR MEZZ/EQUITY CLO

    The 2 x AA traded at around 226dm. Again this compares with 180bps over floored Euribor for Sound Point Euro 4 as reported by Bloomberg.

    The 2 x A bonds traded around 310dm which is around 20bps tighter than where we last had our single A curve marked.

    There are 2 x BB trades in the 850dm area. Both deals are not the cleanest. They have Jnr OC cushions around 1% and MV OCs around 104.50%. For reference Sound Point Euro 4 priced at 735dm over floored Euribor per BBG.

    The single B Jubilee 2017-XVIII traded at 80.85 price. We are having an issue backing out the DM for this and are investigating.